The hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University continues to predict a near average Atlantic hurricane season. Researcher Dr. Phil Klotzbach says they’re expecting to see 10 named storms and four more hurricanes. But he says given how quite the last three years have been, this season will seem a lot more active than usual.

“We’re not going to have the El Nino like we had last year and a little bit the year before. What El Nino does is it increases upper level westerly winds in the Atlantic and tears apart the storms.”

Klotzbach says the season will start to really pick up in the middle of August. He says there is a 29% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast.

“On average, there is about a 1 in 3 chance of the Gulf Coast, as well as the East Coast, getting hit by a major hurricane and this year our probabilities are right near the long term averages since we’re forecasting a near average season.”

Klotzbach says an El Nino the last couple of years kept hurricane activity down. He says we don’t have an El Nino, which will lead to more tropical storms.