Forecasters Release Updated Hurricane Forecast
The very well respected tropical forecast team from Colorado State University has released their mid-season update to their annual hurricane season forecast. The updated forecast looks very similar to the original forecast that was released at the beginning of June.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach who is the lead author on the forecast and subsequent report told the media that they have actually lowered their projection for the number of named storms this season.
Our forecast is now for a total five more named storms, it's three we already had so it's five additional storms, two hurricanes, and one major category three, four, or five hurricane.
The Colorado State forecast team had projected 2015 to be a below average season because of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon occurs when the waters of the Pacific Ocean have a temperature that is slightly above normal.
This results in an upper air flow that blows across Central America through the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic Basin. These higher than normal velocity winds tend to impede the development of any tropical systems in the Atlantic.
The new forecast also decreases the chances, at least in the eyes of forecasters, for a hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast. According to the projections made by Dr. Klotzbach and his team the probability of a storm affecting our part of the country is only 12%. That is down from an average of 30% during a normal hurricane season. This information was reported in a story published by the Louisiana Radio Network.
Dr. Klotzbach reminded residents that even though the forecasters are projection a below average year and even dropping the potential for a landfall in our area it only takes one storm to make it a bad season. He suggests that all coastal residents maintain and update their hurricane preparedness plan throughout the season just to be on the safe side.