Groundhogs’ Accuracy: 39%. But Let’s Stream Punxsatawney Phil Live Anyway
Groundhog Day is a non-holiday holiday that originated in Pennsylvania, USA, and has since spread to our northern neighbors. Though not an official holiday, with paid time off and such, the event is still a pretty big thing in areas where there are, you guessed it, groundhogs!
According to Wikipedia (because I LOVE cut/paste, with credits given):
According to folklore, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day, then the spring season will arrive early, some time before the vernal equinox; if it is sunny, the groundhog will supposedly see its shadow and retreat back into its den, and winter weather will persist for six more weeks. - Wikipedia
I guess that if we can have a Crawfish Festival where we celebrate a crustacean, Northerners can have a Groundhog Day, a day in which people gather to watch a large rodent predict the future, though mostly inaccurately. You can join the celebration through the wonders of modern technology: The Farmer's Almanac will be streaming the event live!
Depending on which study you read, groundhogs' predictions are accurate between 37% and 90% of the time. According to the Groundhog Day organizers, accuracy is around 75%-90%, whereas according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac, the accuracy hovers around 39% (hmmm, it seems that the organizers' numbers shine a better light on the rodents, no pun intended).
According to the numbers from real weather people,
The National Climatic Data Center has described the forecasts as "on average, inaccurate" and stated that "[the] groundhog has shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years." - Wikipedia
the accuracy of the groundhog is around 39%, which is nicht so gut, verstehen?
But, I digress: watching a groundhog emerge from its burrow to look for clouds sounds like a great reason to call in late to work (especially if mimosas are flowing).
So, stream the inaccuracies live on the Farmer's Almanac website on Thursday, February 2, and pass the pitcher of mimosas, please.