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Hurricane Center Monitoring An Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Gulf Of Mexico

Tropics Sep 14
National Hurricane Center

Over the weekend forecasters were busily watching their models and trying to stay one step ahead of Mother Nature when it comes to the tropics. Many forecasters had reason to believe that the cold front that brought the beautiful weekend of weather to South Louisiana might leave a little something extra in the Gulf.

The National Hurricane Center agrees with that assessment and is now monitoring an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Currently this area of disturbed weather is not a great concern for development but over time it could be. The Hurricane Center lists the probability of the system spinning up into a tropical cyclone at 30% over the next five days.

A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into this system this afternoon and take detailed readings to give forecasters a better idea of what the system is doing. Most of the forecast models do not move this system very much over the next five days. In fact the system will be basically stationary, maybe moving a little to the west northwest over the next five days.

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are conducive for tropical development however the upper level wind flow is not. Also the system is very close to land and that will inhibit any  major development as well.  Those are  the main reasons forecasters are not giving this system too much of a chance to develop.

Meanwhile in the Mid-Atlantic a tropical wave that rolled off the coast of Africa last week could become Tropical Storm Ida as early as this afternoon. The forecast track for this system should keep it well out to sea and away from any major land areas.

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