The past week has seen a major uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical storm Fiona came and went. Currently Tropical Storm Gaston is churning in the open waters of the Atlantic but it is not expected to be a threat to any major land mass.

The biggest concern for interest along the United States coastline is a tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center is now suggesting has a 70% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next five days. Should the system reach tropical storm status it would earn the name Hermine.

Tropical forecast models have been projecting the path of this tropical wave since it rolled off the African Continent last week. The best guess from the more reliable tracking models is that the system will pass over the islands of the Bahamas during the next few days. It could certainly threaten the coast of Florida from Miami in the south to Jacksonville in the north.

As of this morning's 2 AM advisory the system, described as a broad area of low pressure, was near Guadeloupe. It's motion of 25 MPH in a west northwesterly direction is expected to continue. The official forecast track from the Hurricane Center will place the system very near the South Florida coast by early next week.

While this system is not expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico and affect the Louisiana coastline there is still enough uncertainty in the forecast over time that the threat to our state can not be ruled out completely just yet.