This is the time of year when tropical  forecasters begin to watch the coast of Africa for potential tropical trouble. Such is the case this morning as the National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather that rolled off the continent into the tropical Atlantic earlier this week.

The prognostication for this system is a low chance of development over the next two days with a better chance of organization and strengthening over the five day forecast period. Hurricane Center forecasters suggest the system has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by late this weekend or early next week.

The latest computer model runs indicate that the system should encounter less than favorable conditions over the short term as it moves westward across the Atlantic.  The models are in wide disagreement on the eventual track and future of the system. It's very difficult for even the best models to latch on to a system when it is still in this stage of development.

As far as the Gulf of Mexico goes things remain quiet and calm. The exception being an upper level system that has moved from just off the coast of Louisiana into the Mississippi Delta. That system has brought rain and thunderstorms to the state over the past few days. It appears as if that system will be yielding to a ridge of high pressure for the latter part of the week and the weekend.

This should allow weather conditions to resume a more typical summer like pattern over the state. That means hot and humid conditions with a possibility of mainly afternoon and early evening showers or thunderstorms.