Louisiana Under Enhanced Risk For Severe Weather Today
Another strong frontal system and accompanying low-pressure system are expected to shake things up weatherwise across the entire state of Louisiana today. The Storm Prediction Center has revised their forecast from Tuesday to include the entire state of Louisiana in what is called an enhanced risk of severe storms today.
Here's what an "enhanced risk of severe weather" means. According to the SPC, that designation means those in the forecast area should be expecting numerous severe thunderstorms. Some of those storms could have enough intensity to bring damaging winds, small hail, and possible tornadoes. It is also possible these passing storms could produce torrential downpours that could cause street flooding and flash flooding in low lying areas.
If you're into the numbers there is a 5% chance that tornado could form anywhere in the state today. There is a 30% chance that damaging winds will occur across the state today. There is also a 30% probability that some of the storms that move across the area later today and tonight could generate hail. To be clear, the official designation suggests that these conditions could occur within 25 miles of any particular point within the forecast area.
So, when is it going to storm?
Some forecast models indicate that the I-10 corridor will begin to experience rain and thunderstorms by mid-morning. Many of these storms will move from the southwest to the northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico and on shore. These storms are going to be associated with a warm front moving onshore.
The real fireworks will likely come later.
The Shreveport area should begin to feel the effects of the aforementioned frontal system moving into the area by lunchtime or slightly thereafter. Some of the stronger storms associated with the frontal system shouldn't reach the I-10 corridor until much later in the day. The forecast models we observed are suggesting Lafayette and Lake Charles will experience their heaviest weather between 7 PM and 1 AM.