A new poll from the University of New Orleans shows Republican John Kennedy with a strong lead in the US Senate race at 22%. UNO pollster Ed Chervenak says Republican Charles Boustany and Democrat Foster Campbell are tied for second at 15%. He says it will be a close race for the second runoff spot.

“I think it is going to go down to the wire. They’ve been pretty close in the polls up until this point, and there’s no reason to think that will change anytime soon,” Chervenak said.

Republican John Fleming polled at 11% to come in fourth place. Chervenak says for Boustany to make the runoff, he has to improve his numbers somehow, which could mean more attack ads are coming.

“He’s got to keep Fleming down and also keep Kennedy within distance. So we can expect more negative advertising against Kennedy from the Boustany campaign,” Chervenak said.

Democrat Caroline Fayard isn’t far behind Campbell, as she polled at 10%. Chervenak says if Campbell wants to surpass Boustany and get in the runoff, he’ll have to take votes away from Fayard.

“Foster Campbell is going to have to coalesce the African American and the democratic vote behind him. Caroline Fayard’s getting a significant portion of that vote. So he needs to convince them to come to his side,” Chervenak said.