Severe Weather Targets Louisiana Again on Thursday – What to Know

The latest severe weather forecast from the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service will not be good news for storm-weary residents of Louisiana. Communities such as Lyons Point, Henderson, St Martinville, Westlake, and Sulphur suffered significant damage in a round of severe storms that raced across the state Monday night.

Unfortunately, many of those same areas will be under the gun for a similar weather scenario late on Thursday and into the early morning hours of Friday. The difference in the forecast between yesterday and today has to do with the expected intensity of Thursday's storms.

The graphic you see above is from the Storm Prediction Center. They are the "severe weather specialist" of the National Weather Service and NOAA forecast team. Based out of Norman, Oklahoma the SPC provides forecasts for severe weather threats days in advance of the threat. As you can see Thursday's threat has been elevated.

The "Enhanced Risk" as you see highlighted in the SPC graphic is forecast for portions of Texas. The "Slight Risk" extends to the east into Louisiana. It includes the cities of Lake Charles, Leesville, Alexandria, and Lafayette and is right on the edge of that slight risk potential. Regardless of the forecast risk, thunderstorms are like the game of horseshoes, close does count, and no, you don't want to be close to any of these big thunderstorms.

The major threats from Thursday's potential severe weather outbreak will come in the form of damaging winds, and small hail, and there will be a risk of rotating storms that could develop into tornadoes. Monday's severe storms brought two E-2 tornadoes to South Louisiana. There was one in Sulphur and one in Henderson. The Henderson storm caused a fatality. There was also an EF-1 tornado reported in Westlake, Louisiana on Monday as well.

The timing of Thursday's severe weather suggests scattered showers during the early part of the day with an increase in clouds and moisture as the day wears on. By 4 pm, showers and storms should begin to move into the western parishes of Louisiana, and as of now, the forecast timing puts the heaviest storms over Lake Charles, Lafayette, and Baton Rouge between 6 p.m. and Midnight.

Heavy downpours will once again be possible with many of these storms. The Weather Prediction Center has placed a large portion of Louisiana at a "Moderate Risk" for an enhanced rainfall event. That means that rainfall rates could outpace municipal drainage systems causing short-lived street flooding and ponding of water on affected roadways.

A Flood Watch has been posted for much of Louisiana today through late in the day on Friday.

A threat of showers and perhaps more storms will exist on Friday. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles says rain chances will be 50% or more for Friday afternoon but diminish Friday evening. The forecast for Saturday calls for improving conditions through the weekend.