Tropical Models Suggest Second System Approaching the Gulf Before July 4th

(KMDL-FM) If you live along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas, get ready, the 2025 Hurricane Season is going to be a bumpier ride than that stretch of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont and whatever LA DOTD is doing to that same roadway between Vinton and the state line.

NOAA, Colorado State, Accu-Weather, and several other tropical forecast outlets have already let it be known that we should expect an active tropical season this year. The Pacific has already seen its first hurricane, Barbara, form. Let's hope what we are seeing on a very reliable tropical model doesn't mean the Atlantic Basin will soon produce a named storm with potential landfall impacts.

What Does the Latest GFS Weather Model Show?

There is some good news when we compare the most recent run of the GFS to a similar run of that same model we reported on over the weekend. In that report, computer modeling suggested a "tropical entity" between the Yucatan and Cuba by this time next week.

READ MORE: Parish by Parish- Louisiana Hurricane Landfall Probability for 2025

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We also implored you to believe that the model guidance would change. It has. "That system", should it materialize, would more likely affect the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche than it might affect the Texas and Louisiana coastline. Remember, this system hasn't even formed. The computers use mathematics to create these glimpses into the future.

That would be good news for the coastal United States, but if you carry the latest run of the GFS out to 384 hours or June 26th, you can see the GFS is picking up another "tropical low pressure system" moving over Cozumel and Cancun.

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If the model guidance is correct, that could mean a developing tropical entity in the southern Gulf on or about June 26th. The words I need you to focus on are " if the model guidance is correct". Because, just like we suggested in our earlier narrative, this model will change over time. And forecast models lose a lot of accuracy over such a long period of time.

What is the Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Forecast?

Sometimes those changes bring us a sigh of relief, other times those changes will cause your sphincter to pucker. Look it up if you don't know what I mean by that. Regardless. This is a model projection and not an official forecast. There is no action required on your part at this time. Just know that this could be a possibility.

As of today, the National Hurricane Center says the tropical Atlantic Basin is quiet, at least for the next seven days. Let's stick with the official word to plan our day and our lives, and let's use the models to remind us that in the tropics and along the coast, not everything is certain, and conditions can and will change.