Tropical Threat Likely in Gulf – Louisiana’s Concerns
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have identified an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Center's update posted just before one this morning suggested that this system was likely to increase in size and strength and could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within a matter of days.
The storm's poorly defined circulation was several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Texas. However, there could be concerns along the Lower Texas Coast in the coming days. Just for clarity, forecasters do not think South Texas will suffer major impacts from this system or whatever this system revolves into next week.
What Are The Tropical Concers For Louisiana This Weekend?
Based on current track and model guidance this storm system is not expected to make a direct impact on Louisiana, as far as wind and rain are concerned. The system should be "blocked" from moving too close to Louisiana's coastline by a cold front that should push through Louisiana early next week.
However, where Louisiana could feel some effects from this system would be in wave action. The storm in the Gulf combined with a frontal boundary could make seas a little more bouncy than usual and there could be higher wave action along the beaches, marshes, and wetlands of Louisiana's coast.
As of this morning, the National Weather Service Office out of Brownsville Texas and the Rio Grande Valley was showing shower and thunderstorm activity related to this potential disturbance. You can see that radar here. Below is a live shot from the Courtyard by Marriot on South Padre Island.
You can see the Hurricane Center's projected probability and track model graphic below.
The good news for Louisiana is that this system is forecast to remain well south of the state before it gets a chance to spin up into something bigger. The bad news is that forecasters do expect a stronger cyclone in the next few days. The worst news is the strengthening storm appears to be taking aim on Florida's west coast.
You can see some of the tropical forecast models here. Please, remember they are model solutions and not official forecasts. As of now, the model guidance does suggest that once again the Tampa Bay and Big Bend areas of Florida should be ready for another tropical system.
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