Statewide Poll Shows Trump’s Lead Shrinking Over Clinton
A poll of 800 likely Louisiana voters shows the presidential race in the state is tightening up. The survey conducted by JMC Analytics finds Republican candidate Donald Trump at 45-percent, but Democrat Hillary Clinton has creeped up to 38-percent. In July, Trump had a 15-percentage point lead. Pollster John Couvillon says white female Democrats are helping to narrow the gap.
“White Democrats represent approximately 20% of the electorate, so that coming home effect is what’s tightening the race up.”
The survey was conducted October 11-15, after a recording was released of Trump making lewd comments about women. Couvillon says after looking at the national polls, he thinks these allegations against the billionaire affected this survey.
“I calculated there was approximately a 2% benefit to the Hillary Clinton campaign in this past week’s poll, which would’ve been affected by all the sexual harassment allegations.”
The poll was commissioned by the John Fleming for U.S Senate campaign. Couvillon believes Trump will win Louisiana by a high single digit margin. He says the race is much tighter in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans, but Trump has a wider lead in the rural areas of the state.
“It’s pretty much following the 2012 party lines in the smaller parishes but I am seeing Republican defection in places like East Baton Rouge and Jefferson Parishes.”