Tropical Uncertainty, Severe Storms Both Looming for Texas

This past week in southeast Texas something happened that has not happened in quite a while for folks in Orange, Vidor, and Jasper. It rained. In some places, it rained really hard and caught a lot of us off guard. Of course, Texas, being Texas, there are some parts of the state that really wish Mother Nature would turn the faucets off.

We spoke to more than a few folks who reported several inches of rain in their home rain gauges after Thursday's storms. And almost every one of those reporters noted that the ground "soaked it all up".  It's good the area received the rainfall without the threat of severe storms. That won't likely be the case as we move through the weekend and into the workweek.

Severe Storms Moving Across Texas This Weekend

Currently, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an area of severe storms and possible tornadoes to move across the Great Plains as the weekend progresses. The southern edge of this severe weather threat extends into Texas.

By midweek this system is expected to bring showers and potentially strong to severe storms to portions of East Texas and Louisiana. That forecast is being fine-tuned and will be updated over the weekend.

Will There Be A Tropical System in The Gulf in November?

If you trust the tropical forecast models the answer to that would be yes. The better questions are what kind or how strong of a tropical system. And, what is the anticipated track of this system?

The National Hurricane Center is giving an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean an 80% probability of becoming a tropical system. That's the red-shaded area you see in the graphic above. If it earns a name it would be called Rafael. Many of the forecast models suggest the system will become a tropical storm over the next few days as it moves northward toward the Gulf of Mexico.

But not all of the models are reaching that solution for what could become Rafael. The European Model suggests the system will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico and be held well to the south of the northern Gulf Coast. The European solution also keeps the system active in the Bay of Campeche. Which could be troublesome even further down the line.

Should the European solution be viable, this would put a potential tropical system south and east of Brownsville by late next week. If that should happen this might increase the rain threat along the lower Texas coast through the weekend.

The Global Forecast System or GFS model suggests the system will lift northward out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. It will strengthen in the Gulf and by November 9th could be a significant tropical system south of New Orleans. The GFS solution also shows the system being "swept away and blown apart" as a strong cold front arrives in Louisiana at about the same time on Saturday.

Here's the disclaimer, model solutions are not an official forecast. Please use this information to better understand the different scenarios that are possible but use official information from the National Weather Service or accredited media when it comes to making decisions about the protection of life and property.

Texas Weather Week Could Be Quite Busy

Depending on where you are in Texas you could have severe and strong thunderstorms, flash flooding wind damage, excessive rain, and the threat of tropical rainfall all before next Sunday.  So, in a nutshell, keep us close all weekend for breaking weather developments.