New Hurricane Forecast Shows Quiet Tropics for LA, Gulf of Mexico

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) - It has not been the hurricane season we were expecting, and one of the leading forecasters every hurricane season is now calling for "below normal" activity for the bulk of September.

In a year where forecasters expected as many as two dozen named storms in the Atlantic tropics, so far, we've only seen five, and we're halfway through the season already.

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The forecast team at Colorado State University, led by Philip Klotzbach, released its two-week forecast for the first half of September, and while there is some activity now, none of it seems to be posing a major threat to the U.S., and the next two weeks is likely to see less activity than normal.

"We favor below-normal activity (60% chance) relative to normal (30%) and above normal (10%)," Klotzbach said on social media Tuesday.

Here's more from the forecast:

"While we still expect the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to end up above average, we believe that the next two weeks are most likely to be characterized by activity in the below-normal category. There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic," the CSU forecast notes. "The National Hurricane Center currently is monitoring three areas for tropical cyclone development in the next seven days. The area in the eastern Atlantic would likely be a short-lived named storm it if were to form, while the system in the central Atlantic is likely to encounter very strong shear in a couple of days, limiting any chances of significant formation. The region in the Caribbean could generate moderate levels of ACE if it were to form and drift in the southern Gulf of Mexico."

The forecast continued noting that "With the exception of the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, large-scale environmental conditions look relatively unfavorable for the next ~7 days but look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity towards the middle of September."

"Global model ensembles highlight the potential for a strong African easterly wave emerging off of the west African coast in 8–9 days. It is still too early to determine what this system’s future would be."

What Happened to the Severe Season?

We're only halfway through the current hurricane season, and Colorado State University is expecting an "above average" season, but we certainly have not seen some of the numbers we were expecting back when the season began in June.

Meteorologist Ryan Maue noted on social media that the Atlantic tropics are "broken."

CSU predicted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes for this year. Their early forecast last year was substantially smaller - 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

But we haven't seen most of those forecasts come to fruition.

It's not entirely clear what's causing the issue, either, but it has forecasters flummoxed. What we do know is that Louisiana has had (thankfully) uneventful seasons in our most recent years, and weather patterns in the Gulf appear to be making that happen again this year. However, there are currently three systems with the potential for development over the next week, and we don't know exactly what kind of storms they'll produce.

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