2013 Hurricane Season – One Month In
As we end June, we are now one month into the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We’ve already had two named storms – Tropical Storm Andrea, which tracked across northern Florida and up the East Coast, and Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the southern Gulf and went inland in central Mexico. So what does that say for the rest of the season, which was predicted to be very active?
“The average number of June tropical stroms and hurricanes is 0.5, meaning one every other year,” says State Climatologist Barry Keim. “And so far this hurricane season, we’ve already had two named storms…So, needless to say, we are already out of the gate pretty rapidly with this particular season. Given the forecast is for a very busy season this year, I’d expect something greater than the average. But, needless to say, only time will tell.”
So, what’s behind the forecasts for this season, predicting between 18 to 20 named storms? Warm sea surface temperatures and the absence of a Pacific El Nino, or La Nina, which can mitigate Atlantic storm formation. Keim feels the predictions are valid, and advises having your hurricane “game plan” ready for whatever comes. “We had 19 named storms last year, 18 the year before that and 19 the year before that. So 20 named storms is certainly within the realm of possibilities.”