It was about a month ago, mid-September to be precise, when many coastal residents of Louisiana were breathing a cautious sigh of relief as the 2024 Hurricane Season had fizzled to a standstill. From Grand Isle through Morgan City, Intracoastal City, Holly Beach, and Lake Charles it really looked like the prognosis of an "above average" tropical season had indeed been wrong.

Submitted Photo/Christine Dinky Dawg
Submitted Photo/Christine Dinky Dawg
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That was then, this is now. This morning the entire world is waiting for the sun to rise over Florida so the assessment of that state's most recent landfalling cyclone, Milton, can begin. It's almost a certainty that the images out of Florida will be gut-wrenching. And, if you'd like to help those affected by Milton or the other storm that impacted Florida in recent weeks, Helene, follow this link.

During the lull in the tropical season, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center were quick to remind us that an active season was still at hand. Needless to say with Francie, Helene, Kirk, Leslie, and Milton forecasters were spot-on. But if you recall the pre-season forecast suggested we would reach the "N" or the "O" storm before the season ended. 

Ibrahim Rifath via Unsplash.com
Ibrahim Rifath via Unsplash.com
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We can tell you the next name on the list is Nadine. We can also tell you that several of the reliable tropical models that foretold Francine, Helene, and Milton, are currently suggesting a system that could become "Nadine" isn't too far off in our future.

Here is where we remind you that model projections are not an official forecast. Long-range model projections are not reliable enough to make life-or-death plans around. However, they are a good indication of what could happen over the forecast period.

John Seney via YouTube
John Seney via YouTube
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In this case, we are looking at the GFS Model, which is the model the National Weather Service puts a lot of faith in when making forecasts for the tropics. That model currently shows a low-pressure system in the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about two weeks.

As that model run goes deeper into the forecast period the GFS suggests this storm system will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico or the southern tip of Florida on or about October 24th. The model run concludes with a projection of a strong tropical cyclone near the Florida Keys on or about October 25th.

Storyful News & Weather via YouTube
Storyful News & Weather via YouTube
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Please remember this is one model projection but the model has been pretty accurate during this Hurricane Season so it would be wise to monitor it and the other forecast models over the next three to four weeks.

NOAA.gov
NOAA.gov
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As you can see from the graphic above, the tropical season lightens up considerably after mid-October. Let's hope this will be the case. Meanwhile, we can also hope for more of those October cold fronts to push through the Gulf South.

cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
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These systems usually keep the tropical systems at bay and they bring us some wonderful fall weather too. That's certainly what I would like to look forward to instead of making plans for a tropical system along the coast.

What's your biggest fear?

Gallery Credit: Landon King

 

 

 

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