Severe Weather Threat Moves Into Louisiana Thursday

Forecasters with the Storm Prediction Center have increased the threat level for severe weather across much of Louisiana during the day on Thursday. Many forecast models are also suggesting that a large portion of southern Louisiana will experience a significant rainfall event over the next four to five days.

The graphic you see above is from the SPC and you can see where forecasters believe the greatest threat of severe weather will be. There is an "enhanced threat" for a small portion of southeastern Texas on Thursday. The threat extends outward from that area into other portions of Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

The threat level for residents of western Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes will be "slight" while the rest of the I-10 corridor, the I-49 corridor, and the western half of the I-20 corridor in Louisiana will be under a marginal threat for severe storms. As of now, forecasters believe the greatest threat for strong storms in Louisiana will occur from mid-morning through the afternoon hours.

The Weather Prediction Center has also added an advisory that includes all of Louisiana, east Texas, and western Mississippi. The advisory is for "excessive rainfall". The National Weather Service describes "excessive rainfall" as a downpour that will exceed a particular area's ability to drain. In other words, heavy rainfall that outperforms flash flood guidance for a particular area.

How Much Rain Will Louisiana Get Over the Next Few Days?

KATC TV 3 Chief Meteorologist Rob Perillo says in his blog on the TV station website that in general south Louisiana will see rainfall totals of at least one inch to as much as three inches. Obviously, there could be locally higher amounts in stronger thunderstorms.

The graphic above shows predicted rainfall between today and Sunday at 5 pm. As you can see most of the I-10 corridor towns of Lake Charles, Lafayette, and Baton Rouge will be expecting two inches of rain over the next four to five days.

Will It Rain In Louisiana Over The Weekend?

The short answer is probably. As of now, there is a continuing threat of showers across the state on Friday, although the coverage and intensity of the showers and storms is not expected to be as great as it is forecast for Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday will bring a renewed threat of showers and storms to a large part of the state as well. Showers and storms will build back into the area beginning late Friday night and the threat of showers and storms will be 50% or higher for both Saturday and Sunday.