New Fall Forecasts Released – When Will it Get ‘Cool’ in Texas?

From Dalhart to Dallas and Waco to Waskom moms and dads all over the Lone Star State have been hustling for the past few weeks. The reason for the rush? Why it's Back-to-School time. That means getting supplies and finding out that your children grew three inches while they were eating you out of house and home over the summer.

The start of school also means that there is an end to the searing summer heat that Texas has experienced since last May. And while we are nowhere close to being "cool" at all this week. There will be signs in the coming weeks that our sweating will reduced to a minimum.

I would guess the return of football teams to fall practices and the sudden run on notebooks, pencils, paper, and other school supplies is a sure sign that the oppressive heat of August will soon be a memory. It won't be too much longer until barbeque grills and bubbling pots will be the rule and not the exception outside of our favorite football stadiums.

Cooler weather is fun to think about when your afternoon high temperature is forecast to be 95 to 99 degrees as it is across most of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. The chances of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm are minimal for the next few days so while there is no "official" heat advisory posted for today, it will be extremely hot and very dangerous. And no, the heat won't let up at all this week.

The good news for the fall in the Lone Star State comes from two reliable and respected weather forecast outlets. One is the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service. They offer forecasts that look three months out and the latest one for Texas' temperatures looks like this.

You can see that Texas is listed in the "likely above" category when it comes to temperatures. The Old Farmer's Almanac is our second reliable forecast outlet. The OFA is somewhat in agreement with this way of thinking. The Old Farmer's Almanac says  Texas will be above normal as far as temperatures go as we move into the fall months.

For this to make sense you'd need to know what "average" is. For our purposes, we used data from Houston, Texas. In September the average high is 86 degrees. In October we cool off considerably as the average high drops to 79 degrees. By November the average high for Louisiana is only 70 degrees.

And yes these numbers will be very different in Amarillo, El Paso, San Antonio, and Brownsville. But the general synopsis suggests "warmer than normal" for the next three months for the entire state.

The Climate Prediction Center also forecasts precipitation for the next three months and it does appear as though Louisiana will be in for slightly wetter than average weather.

Again, for this to make sense you'd need to know what "average" is. For September the average rainfall is 4.72 inches in southeastern Texas. That's slightly higher for October at 5.23 inches. The average drops down to 4.35 for November.  So, we can expect a slight uptick in rainfall which would be a good thing for our crawfish season in the counties around Houston and Beaumont.

The Old Farmer's Almanac is a little more bullish on rainfall in Texas over the next three months. While just to the east in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, the OFA is calling for "less than average" rainfall, their forecast suggests that Texas might get more rainfall than average during the same time frame.

Naturally, Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature is going to do but based on the available science and data, at least you have some idea of what to expect as we transition from the longer days of summer into the shorter days of fall.