Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are currently watching an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea. Forecasters have given this system a 30% probability to strengthen over the next five days. Conditions in the Western Caribbean are expected to be conducive for some very slow strengthening as the system moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Most of the tropical forecast models do show this system in some form crossing into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Many of the models indicate the system will be nothing more than an area of disturbed weather as it approaches the southern Gulf.

Even though we are on the downhill slide into the end of the Hurricane Season there is still a reason to be vigilant where the tropics are concerned. It was 16 years ago today that Hurricane Lili made landfall along Louisiana's coastline. So, we can experience a hurricane well into the Fall.

Elsewhere, Leslie obtained hurricane status about 4 AM local time this morning. That system continues to spin in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The forecast track does keep that system well out to sea.

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