Hurricane Center: Tropical Threat Grows in Gulf of Mexico

From Morgan City, Louisiana westward through Vermilion and Cameron Parishes and on down the Upper Texas Coast residents are keeping a watchful eye on the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. According to the National Hurricane Center forecast office there's not much to see there now, but that's expected to change in the next few days.

Those changes that Hurricane Center forecasters are alluding to could bring tropical weather conditions to much of Louisiana's coastline by late this weekend or early next week. Here's the current lay of the land, or water we should say, according to the National Hurricane Center.

This graphic was posted to the Hurricane Center website just after midnight Louisiana time and it suggests the Bay of Campeche or southwestern Gulf of Mexico is about to become active with a potential tropical cyclone. Forecasters believe an area of low pressure will form in that area of the Gulf over the next day or so. That system has been given a 40% probability of strengthening into a tropical depression.

A tropical depression is defined by the National Hurricane Center this way,

A tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.

In most cases, the biggest threat a tropical depression brings to a coastal area is torrential rainfall. A system that was classified as a "tropical disturbance" just passed over southern Florida and dumped rainfall amounts in excess of 12 inches in several locations. Needless to say, rainfall amounts of that magnitude would cause major issues in Louisiana and along the coastline.

As of this morning tropical model guidance suggests that if a system does form it will likely move westward or northwestward over the forecast period. This would bring the storm system onshore in northeastern Mexico but the atmospheric moisture generated by the system would spread much further to the north bringing an increased threat of showers, storms, and heavy downpours to southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana by late in the day Sunday.

Forecast Models Suggest an Even Bigger Threat to Louisiana in Two Weeks

Please remember that model solutions are not official forecasts. Many of the models that are used do have large margins of error especially when extrapolated over time. In the case of two weeks, the uncertainty associated with any model is much higher than its perceived accuracy.

As of early this morning, at least one forecast model shows another tropical system entering the Gulf of Mexico on or about Sunday, June, 23rd. The guidance for that system suggests a path across the Gulf and an eventual landfall in southeastern Louisiana. Remember, it's a model, not a forecast but it is still something you would want to have in the back of your mind.

Louisiana Weather for The Father's Day Weekend

Father's Day weekend will be okay for Saturday but Sunday will likely tell a different story. The next few mornings across South Louisiana will seem a bit more pleasant than usual because of drier less humid air at the surface. Humidity levels will be on the increase by Saturday and by Sunday we could feel the effects of tropical moisture over southern Louisiana in the form of showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday afternoon.

The increased threat of showers and storms will remain in the area for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week, and by then we should have a much better handle on that potential tropical system that could affect Louisiana during the last week of June.