(KMDL-FM) Over the weekend, we reported to you that the Global Forecast System Model used by the National Weather Service to create forecasts for Louisiana was finally showing a big break in the summer heat. Granted, today, tomorrow, and much of this week will still be extremely hot; we are beginning to get confirmation that the long-range forecasts have some merit.
The first hint of summer's retreat will come later this week when Louisiana will receive the benefit of a northeast wind flow. That flow will come courtesy of a wave in the northern Gulf and a high-pressure system centered over the mid-Atlantic region of the country.
Why Will The Humidity Be Lower Across Louisiana Thursday and Friday?
The airflow, blowing across the landmass instead of the humid Gulf waters, will bring drier air into Louisiana by Thursday and Friday. As we know, a "dry heat" feels less oppressive than a "wet heat". Granted, we will still have heat, plenty of it, but without the humidity, it will feel better to be outside.
This should make Friday night and Saturday football games feel a lot more pleasant. And for those who plan to attend Gulf Brew in Downtown Lafayette on Saturday, the day should be perfect for enjoying a cold beer or two.
As we move into next week, that's when we can expect the "cold front" that we discussed with you over the weekend. Unfortunately, it doesn't look as if we'll get the temperature relief we originally thought, but the region will have cooler than they are now temperatures and lower humidity readings as the first day of fall officially arrives.
When Is The First Day of Fall in Louisiana?
The first day of fall is September 22nd, and a couple of days after that change of season is when we can expect what some meteorologists are calling "a little cool front". By the way, the target date for the "not as hot and less humid cool front" is still September 24th, or about ten days from today.
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As far as the first "you're going to want a jacket" day, we don't see that on any of the reliable long-range models just yet. But that first "hey it's kind of chilly" day usually arrives about the middle of October.
Some of you have inquired about when the I-10 corridor in Louisiana should expect the first frost of the season. That won't likely happen until November. In Lafayette, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac, our first light frost happens on or about November 20th through the 26th.
In Baton Rouge, the first frost, according to the OFA, is between November 17 and November 25th, while in Lake Charles, Jack Frost won't arrive until November 28th through December 3rd. Again, all of those dates are based on averages.
Tropics Are Still Active - How Does the Gulf Look for Late September?
We should note that the GFS Model Runs are still showing a strong low-pressure system moving into the Gulf late in September. We remind you that long-range models extended that far out in time are basically mathematical speculations and really shouldn't be relied upon other than for "potential problems down the road" purposes.
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The National Hurricane Center is currently watching a system in the mid-Atlantic east of Bermuda; that system has been given a 40% probability of strengthening. We have still not had the first hurricane of 2026, and we are on the downhill side of the peak of the season, so perhaps we'll get through the season with only named tropical storms and no hurricanes at all.
Y'all were aware that this time of year is also a great time for shoppers, right? We are in seasonal transition inside most of your favorite stores, and that means big savings if you know what to shop for. We suggest you shop for these things right now.
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Gallery Credit: Bruce Mikells
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