Respected Forecaster Says Hurricane Season ‘Over For Louisiana’

For the people of Houma, New Orleans, and Slidell Hurricane Season 2024 has been all too real. Hurricane Francine rolled onshore in southeastern Louisiana just a few weeks ago and many families and businesses are still cleaning up after the storm. But those who have lived in the Gulf South for more than a few Hurricane Seasons know, that "it ain't over 'til it's over".

Based on recent model guidance and forecasts from the National Hurricane Center we can clearly see that "over" is not a word the Hurricane Center is using in its description of Hurricane Season 2024. The graphic below is from the National Hurricane Center and it shows three areas of concern. One of those areas of concern is in the western Caribbean Sea. That's a part of the globe that is a hotbed for tropical formation as we get into this part of the tropical season.

You'll notice the NHC has the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean slipping into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The problem with tropical systems once they get in the Gulf is this. There's no way out without making landfall. In most cases, landfall happens in the United States.

Forecast Suggests No More Tropical Troubles for Louisiana This Season

This brings us to the one forecast outlet that has been "spot on" in their guidance for the 2024 Hurricane Season. Several months ago we reported that the Old Farmer's Almanac had suggested three tropical events along or near the Louisiana coast for 2024. In a science where accuracy is king, the Old Farmer's Almanac might just have earned a crown.

If you weren't paying attention we have had three "tropical" events along or near the Louisiana coast this season. Not only did the OFA predict the events, they were within a few days of pinpointing the storms. Which is pretty remarkable when you consider the OFA forecast comes out several months before the Hurricane Season begins.

Take a look for yourself, the Old Farmer's Almanac appeared to have inside information on Hurricane Beryl, Hurricane Debby, and Hurricane Francine too. In the case of each storm, the publication was uncanny in its accuracy and now the OFA, if you read the forecasts in their publication, says no more tropical issues for Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast. 

And while the tropical season in the Atlantic Basin may not officially be over until November 30th, based on the OFA outlook with no more tropical disturbances approaching our coastline it looks like smooth sailing into gumbo weather for Louisiana.

How Accurate Are the Old Farmer's Almanac Forecasts?

The publication claims to be 80% accurate in its predictions. To put that in perspective, the National Weather Service's five-day forecast only claims 90% accuracy, so to claim 80% on a seasonal or annual forecast is a pretty bold claim. In 2023 the OFA admitted they were off a bit in its weather guessing, saying the forecast for that season was only 70% accurate.

So, are we really done with tropical systems for the 2024 Hurricane Season? Only time will tell for certain. We should still remain vigilant, especially with a potential trouble spot forecast to move into the Gulf over the weekend. 

Another thing to consider before letting your guard down is the fact that so many other respected forecast outlets are still suggesting this year's hurricane season will be above average.  We have only made it to the "G" storm and most outlets say the season will produce named storms up to the "O" or "P" names.

I know residents of coastal Louisiana are certainly hoping the Old Farmer's Almanac outlook continues to be correct, but remember that is a model projection and you should never base your plans on what "the models say".

Personally, I will keep up with our local forecasters, the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles, and the experienced forecasters of the National Hurricane Center to keep my family safe. I suggest you do the same and if it turns out the Old Farmer's Almanac prediction was correct, I will be happy about that for them and for us.