Weather Service Offers First Glance at Louisiana Fall Outlook

If you were in Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, or basically anywhere in Louisiana along or close to Interstate 10 at this time last year you probably recall a couple of things. One, it was really darn hot. And two, it had not rained in quite a while. Such was the beginning a little over a year ago of one of the most damaging weather events in Louisiana's history.

The drought of 2023 reached historic proportions across the state and then the heat and lack of humidity to cause afternoon showers messed up our crawfish season for the beginning of 2024. So, it's a fair question to ask, "What should Louisiana be expecting as move through the summer and into fall"?

For a lot of us in Louisiana the mere mention of the word "fall" conjures up images of football on Friday night, tailgating on Saturday, cursing at the Saints on Sunday, and maybe the sound of a spoon stirring roux in the bottom of a Magnalite pot. No, we don't normally think of leaves changing and colder weather in the fall around here.

Those kinds of changes in temperature and appearance won't usually start to happen until almost Halloween in Louisiana but we do understand, that fall technically begins in September and the forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center have released their long-range forecast for what Louisiana can expect during the late summer months and the first glorious weeks of fall.

Will Louisiana Experience Another Drought This Fall?

Certainly, that is a fair question after last year's broiling summer, fall, and the beginning of winter. Here is what the CPC, suggests Louisiana will experience during the remainder of July, August, and September.

That certainly doesn't look to be a forecast that is suggesting a return of drought conditions to Louisiana. A large portion of the state is forecast to have a very wet end to the summer and the beginning of the fall. Let's hope that extra precipitation won't come in the form of a tropical weather system. But we all know there is a strong possibility that it will be if you believe the seasonal forecasts.

The other concern for Louisiana as we move through July and August and into football season is the temperature. While a lot of us expect to be sweating in our seats at Cajun Field in Lafayette, Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, or Cowboy Stadium in Lake Charles for the first few games of the season we would like to know when we can make some gumbo for the tailgate parties.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, you might want to hold off until October.

All of that orange is not good for fans of colder temperatures. As you can see the outlook for summer into early fall for Louisiana is quite heated. Most of the I-10 corridor can expect above-normal temperatures. That will mean highs in the middle to upper 90s as opposed to closer to 90 degrees.

Couple that with the fact that more precipitation is expected, which usually means higher humidities, we could be looking at several weeks with heat advisories and triple-digit heat indices as we slide through August and into September. No, it's not surprising but it certainly puts a damper on a lot of outside plans for the fall.

Oh, and you did see where Colorado State updated its tropical weather forecast and decided the season would likely be even busier than first expected. So there is a pretty strong possibility that "if we make it through September", sorry Merle, we will probably do so with at least one tropical system affecting our plans.