Those who follow the forecast, aka weather geeks, have noticed that a lot of the national forecast centers, bother governmental and private, have been touting a significant severe weather threat that is shaping up to affect Louisiana's forecast by the time we head back to work and school next week.

Staff Photo
Staff Photo
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The catalyst will be a strong frontal system and associated low-pressure center that is expected to sweep across the nation's midsection over the course of the weekend and into next week. That frontal system is expected to bring a significant severe weather threat to portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana late in the day on Monday. That threat should continue across the state into Tuesday as well.

spc.noaa.gov
spc.noaa.gov
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As you can see in the graphic above, the Storm Prediction Center is suggesting that an enhanced threat of severe storms will cover western Louisiana from the Lake Charles area northward over the parishes that border on Toledo Bend Reservoir.

A marginal risk of severe storms extends eastward into the state almost as far east as Lafayette. Basically what forecasters are trying to communicate is that we should all be prepared for strong storms that could contain gusty winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and there could the possibility of tornadoes as well.

It does look as though forecasters believe the greatest threat of severe storms will be along and north of US 190 as we move through late Monday night and into Tuesday. However, that is subject to change and all of Acadiana and Southwest Louisiana should be weather conscious as we move into the new work week.

Once this storm system clears the area on Tuesday we should expect sunny but cool conditions through the remainder of the workweek. The next threat of rain in the long-range forecast doesn't come until March 30th. While this is great news for those wanting to get out and enjoy the longer daylight hours, it could lead to the reinstatement of burn bans in several parishes.

noaa.nws.ncep.cpc.gov
noaa.nws.ncep.cpc.gov
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As you can see from the U.S. Drought Monitor map there is a large portion of southwest Louisiana that is noted to be in "extreme drought" conditions. The rest of the state is either in "severe drought" or "moderate drought". So, while we don't want storms, we do need rain.

Let's just hope that we won't have to spend the beautiful days that we expect to follow this frontal passage cleaning up storm debris. While it's not likely, it is a possibility that we should be prepared for especially late Monday night into Tuesday.

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