Will Acadiana See a Hurricane in 2026? What the Forecast and History Say
LAFAYETTE, La. — Eight named storms have formed in the Atlantic this year, and none has reached hurricane strength. AccuWeather’s updated outlook now calls for zero to two hurricanes the rest of the way, and lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva says AccuWeather is the first known source to forecast the potential for none at all.
A season with no hurricanes would be the first in more than a century and only the third since records began in 1851. Louisiana has taken landfalls from two tropical storms this year, and the season officially runs 60 more days.
How Close Is 2026 to a Hurricane-Free Season?
Hanna formed Monday as the eighth named storm, with 45 mph winds, and is dissipating. The nearest miss was Tropical Storm Fay, which peaked at 70 mph, just 4 mph short of hurricane strength.
The Atlantic has set a record for the latest first hurricane of the satellite era. The Weather Channel lists the previous mark as Sept. 11, reached in both 2002 and 2013. AccuWeather puts the all-time record at Oct. 8, 1905, which is one week from today.
By the end of September, an average season has usually produced five hurricanes. October typically adds one or two, and a November hurricane comes along about once every three years.
The two hurricane-free seasons on record, 1907 and 1914, predate satellite coverage of the full basin. The Weather Channel notes a storm or two may have gone unrecorded in those years if no ship was nearby. Only one tropical storm was documented in 1914.
Why Is the Atlantic So Quiet This Year?
El Niño is the main driver. It typically increases wind shear high above the Atlantic, which keeps thunderstorms from organizing around a tropical system. NOAA puts the odds of a super El Niño this fall at 97%, and AccuWeather says it could become the strongest on record before the season ends.
The Pacific hurricane basin had logged at least 16 named storms by late September.
LSU Health climatologist Barry Keim said in June that El Niño tends to knock down Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes even though it starts in the Pacific. If it lingers, he added, Louisiana can expect a cooler, wetter winter.
NOAA’s May outlook called for a below-normal season with 3 to 6 hurricanes. Its August update trimmed that range to 2 to 6.
Can a Hurricane Still Form Before Nov. 30?
Yes, though history leans against it. AccuWeather points out that of the last three super El Niño years, only 2015 produced a hurricane after Oct. 1. The Weather Channel found that three of five super El Niño seasons since 1950 had no hurricane after September. The two seasons that did were 2015 and 1965.
Warm water keeps some risk alive. DaSilva says very warm water in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast could let a storm reach hurricane strength well into the fall. AccuWeather ranks the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas at higher-than-average risk of a direct tropical impact for the rest of the season. The central and lower Texas coast faces a lower risk.
Last year showed how late a season can turn. The 2025 season was fairly unremarkable until late October, when Category 5 Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica and Cuba.
What Has Louisiana Seen in 2026?
Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on Wednesday, June 17, and its remnants dumped record rain on Louisiana. A new state record for 24-hour rainfall was confirmed near Cottonport, and Gov. Jeff Landry declared states of emergency in six parishes, including St. Landry.
Tropical Storm Bertha made landfall in St. Bernard Parish on Wednesday, July 22, with 45 mph winds. Fox Weather reported it was the first named storm to hit Louisiana since Hurricane Francine in September 2024, and only the 10th July landfall in the state since 1850. Bertha came ashore again near the Texas-Louisiana border the next day.
Tropical storm warnings covered some Acadiana parishes, and Gov. Jeff Landry noted Bertha was weakening before it reached the region.
Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall Tuesday, Sept. 1, near Johnson Bayou in western Cameron Parish with 60 mph winds. Most of its impacts missed Acadiana, though outer bands brought rain to the Lafayette area and tropical moisture kept showers in the forecast.
Francine was the last hurricane to strike the state. It made landfall in Terrebonne Parish on Sept. 11, 2024, as a Category 2. Laura struck Cameron as a Category 4 in 2020, and Ida followed in 2021. Both hit with 150 mph winds. The 1856 Last Island hurricane matched that wind speed, crossed Last Island and came ashore again near New Iberia hours later.
What Should Acadiana Expect This Weekend?
A wet one. Acadiana News First forecasters say a tropical wave will merge with moisture from Pacific Hurricane Polo and bring 2 to 4 inches of rain through the weekend, with higher totals in some spots. Scattered showers begin Friday evening and become more numerous Saturday. Intense rain rates could cause flash flooding.
Strong wind shear over the Gulf should keep the system from developing. A frontal boundary should hold the heaviest rain offshore, though a slight shift north would bring more persistent rain.
For the New Orleans area, FOX 8 reports the Weather Prediction Center has a level 2 of 4 flood threat for Saturday and Sunday. The station adds that Hanna is dissipating and no other tropical development is expected within the next week.
How Long Does Hurricane Season Last in Louisiana?
Through Nov. 30. A tropical storm does not have to become a hurricane to cause flooding, and the Weather Channel notes that three of this season’s storms formed in the Gulf. Its advice for anyone in a hurricane zone is to keep a plan ready through the end of the season.
AccuWeather adds that warm water near land can leave less time to prepare if a storm intensifies quickly near the coast.
You May Also Like...
- Why 2026 Could Break Atlantic Hurricane History
- Hurricane Forecast Adjusted Again: Peak of the Season Still Weeks Away
Most Memorable Hurricanes to Make Landfall in Louisiana
More From News Talk 96.5 KPEL
