Hurricane Francine to Make Landfall in Louisiana as Cat. 1 Storm

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) - The latest forecast for Hurricane Francine shows little change in the storm's path, with landfall expected in St. Mary Parish.

However, despite earlier forecasts showing that Francine may reach Category 2 strength, the Louisiana coast may be safer than previously thought.

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Landfall is still expected early this afternoon, though the storm will quickly lose power once it makes landfall.

"Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the last several hours," the National Hurricane Center said in its 10 a.m. update. "Flight-level winds from the aircraft and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of southwesterly shear."

Credit: National Hurricane Center/NOAA

"A slightly faster northeastward motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas," the advisory noted. "This will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous advisory."

Here's the latest satellite image from the website Zoom.Earth:

Most data coming in shows that wind shear "is working against the western edge of the storm and dry air is trying to get into the center but so far it the storm has remained sealed off," Daniel Phillips notes at KATC.

"Weakening will begin as it approaches the coast and gets into an environment with higher shear and should quickly begin to fall apart after landfall," he explained.

But the biggest threat will remain storm surge along the Louisiana coasts, where 6 feet of surge is likely along Vermilion Bay. The eastern shore could possibly see spots as high as 10 feet, KATC reports.

Most of the flooding threat south Louisiana has expected, like Francine, has shifted eastward, with New Orleans and the Mississippi line under increasing flood threats.

Hurricane Preparation, What Are the Items You Didn't Think Of?

When there is word that a hurricane might threaten the Gulf Coast, we start thinking about what items we need to make life bearable if we end up stuck at home without electricity and internet.

In addition to these creature comforts, we also need to think about the many things that we would need to take with us if we are forced to evacuate.

While we all immediately think of things like prescription medicines and important papers, there are other things that can come in handy whether we will be stuck at home, at a relative's house, or in a shelter.