CSU Has Adjusted Its 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

(KMDL-FM) The Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2026 is about six weeks old. It started on June 1st, and Louisiana has already felt the effects of the season's lone named storm so far, Arthur. Will there be more named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin? The short answer is probably. The good-news answer from Colorado State University is probably: not as many as we first thought.

Each year, the Meteorology Department at Colorado State University issues seasonal forecasts for tropical activity. The school's forecasts have become among the most widely respected outlooks in atmospheric science, so this mid-season adjustment will have major ramifications for the Gulf South this year.

How Many Named Storms Were First Predicted for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

The early-season forecast from Colorado State suggested there would be 13 named storms this season. Six of those storms would rise to hurricane strength, and of those six storms, two would become major hurricanes. That was the outlook in early April.

In early June, CSU amended its outlook, dropping the number of named storms from 13 to 11. The number of hurricanes was reduced from six to five, and the number of major hurricanes predicted remained at two.

The early July update to the Colorado State Tropical forecast suggests even less activity in the tropical Atlantic this year. The number of named storms has been reduced to nine, with four of those becoming hurricanes. Only one major hurricane is forecast by CSU for the current season; that is down from two in earlier forecasts.

The change in forecast projections is based on data that supports a Super El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. This weather phenomenon often disrupts tropical activity in the Gulf and Caribbean, and this year, it appears to be "acting as expected," as tropical activity has been at its lowest in more than a decade.

What Is the Probability of a Named Storm Making Landfall Along the Gulf Coast?

The CSU updated outlook also reduced the probability of a Gulf Coast landfall to 10% for the season. The average landfall probability for the coastline from Cedar Key, Florida westward across the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and the Texas coast south to Brownsville is 27%.

Here is the part of the story where we remind you it only takes one storm to make a hurricane season memorable. While the news is encouraging for the Gulf South this season, we could still have an impact from a tropical system before the winds start to blow cooler. Make sure you are prepared to act quickly should conditions warrant.