Hurricane Center Notes New Development – Concerns for Louisiana?
Earlier this year residents of Coastal Louisiana were advised that this Hurricane Season 2024 would be a busy one. And it didn't take Mother Nature too much time to demonstrate that she meant business this year when Hurricane Beryl roared ashore in neighboring Texas.
I am sure there are folks in the Greater Houston Area who are still feeling some of the effects of Hurricane Beryl. Following Beryl there have been a number of named tropical systems that have made landfall here in the Gulf South. Francine was a notable storm of not too long ago but the headline makers for this turbulent tropical season have been Helene and Milton.
There is good news and bad news regarding hurricanes and tropical systems in the coming months. The good news is there are about six weeks left in the season. The bad news is there are still six weeks left in the season. It's a matter of looking half full or half empty I suppose.
The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring activity in the Tropical Atlantic Basin since well before the June 1st start of the hurricane season. Currently, the activity in the Atlantic has become quiet with one brand new exception.
The graphic above is the 7-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center. That orange X you see represented on the map is a tropical wave that recently rolled off the African Continent. The Hurricane Center has given this system a 40% probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone.
Based on model guidance it does not appear as though this storm system will become a player in the Gulf of Mexico. That's not written in stone but the majority of the tropical models keep the system out of the Gulf.
Please note that these are model solutions and not official forecasts. Even if they were official forecasts there would be a lot of room for error since the prognostication is being made over such a large expanse of time.
There is one tropical forecast outlet that says Hurricane Season is done for Louisiana. They actually made that announcement a month or so ago. I hope they are correct. I also hope there will be no more tropical landfills in the United States for the remainder of the year.
And if you're looking for a little more reassurance that the tropical season is about done, you can see in the graphic below from the NHC that we are well past the peak of the season and almost past the secondary peak that happens in October. Let's hope it's all downhill to November 30th.
If you'd like to help those who are hurting because of Hurricanes Helene and or Milton, you can do so locally. Get the information here.
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