Hurricane Center: Tropical System Possible in Gulf Next Week

(KMDL-FM) The 2025 Hurricane Season has seen its first named storm come and go. Could the second named storm of the season be what's forming in the Caribbean Sea with an eye on the southwestern Gulf by sometime next week?

Unfortunately, the short answer to that question is yes. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This area of showers and storms is expected to drift to the northwest over the next few days.

READ MORE: Parish by Parish: Probability of Landfalling Hurricane in Louisiana 2025

READ MORE: County by County: Probability of Landfalling Hurricane in Texas 2025

On its current trajectory, this would put the area of concern over the Bay of Campeche by Sunday or early Monday. Forecast models suggest that a low-pressure system could form in that same vicinity. Should that happen, then conditions might be favorable for tropical development next week.

Get our free mobile app

What is the Probability of Tropical Development in the Gulf?

The movement of this system will be key to any further development. As of now, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are giving the system a low 10% probability of growing stronger over the next two days.

The possibility of strengthening increases to 20%, which is still relatively low, over a seven-day forecast period. This is where the movement of the system will really come into play. Should the area of disturbed weather and a potential low-pressure system form over the Bay of Campeche, it will likely strengthen because of the warm water beneath it.

However, should the system slide a little further to the west, it would interact with the Gulf Coast of Mexico, and that would inhibit any tropical formation. However, the system will still be a prodigious rain producer for portions of northern Mexico and southern Texas.

Will There Be a Tropical System in the Gulf By July 4th?

And, regardless of tropical development or not, some tropical forecast models suggest that moisture from this system could move northward along the western Gulf Coast. If that happens, that would bring an increased threat of rain and storms to Coastal Texas and Louisiana as we approach the July 4th holiday weekend.

This is a developing story and will be updated as new information becomes available.