Tropical Disturbance Forms Off Louisiana Coastline
For most of the month of August residents of coastal communities such as Cameron, Grand Isle, and Holly Beach have been quietly breathing huge sighs of relief. That's because the explosive tropical season that was forecast for 2024 had not materialized. August is notorious for tropical weather in Louisiana. Ask anyone along the bayou what "August 29th" means, they can tell you.
That was last week, and now in just a few short days the Atlantic Basin has gone from quiet to active with three potential tropical trouble spots now being monitored for further development by the National Hurricane Center.
Perhaps the most surprise development of those developments was the notation of an area of disturbed weather with potential for tropical development situated right along the upper Texas coast and just a few miles from Louisiana coastline.
That's the tiny yellow X that's located near Galveston on this map. The system in orange will likely play a part in our weather as well. We'll detail the outlook for that one too as part of this narrative.
The system right along the Texas/Louisiana coast is part of the reason your Labor Day forecast includes a large threat of rain. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has placed almost all of Louisiana that is south of Interstate 10 at risk for an "excessive rainfall event" today.
An excessive rainfall event is when rainfall rates exceed an areas ability to drain the water away. This usually results in flash flooding and street flooding. And across many parishes in South Louisiana that could happen today, tomorrow and maybe on Monday too.
The weather system is not expected to strengthen into a tropical depression but that is a possibility. Forecasters suggest the system will linger off the coast for the next several days. And although there is no defined circulation at this time it could happen and if it happens over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico then anything is possible.
There is another area of disturbed weather in the Tropical Atlantic Basin that bears watching in Louisiana even though it's several hundred miles away. That's the system highlighted in orange on the map above. That system is forecast to strengthen and move into the Caribbean Sea by next week. From there the model guidance is offering a wide range of scenarios.
At least one of those scenarios suggests a landfalling tropical system along the northern Gulf Coast between September 8th and September 12th. We won't go into details here since those forecasts will change tremendously over the next two weeks.
We don't want to frighten you but we do want you to be aware there could be a significant weather event affecting Louisiana between those dates. But please remember at this juncture these are model projections and not officials forecasts.
In the meantime be aware that there is a heavy rain threat for much of South Louisiana for the balance of the Labor Day Holiday. Plan your activities accordingly.
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Gallery Credit: Bruce Mikells