Rain Chances Ramping Up Heading in to Acadiana’s Weekend

It looks as if the recent stretch of very nice and very springlike weather South Louisiana has been enjoying for the past five or so days is about to come to an end. It might not end today but heading into the weekend those with outdoor plans might want to check the forecast and the local weather radar from time to time to see if they will need to restructure those plans to avoid getting wet.

You've probably noticed there's been a pretty strong breeze blowing over much of the area the past few days. Those southerly winds are bringing a lot of moisture into Louisiana. That moisture along with daytime heating will some instability in the atmosphere just ahead of an approaching frontal system.

We will have kind of a split forecast for today.

Most of Acadiana, say from Crowley eastward will experience a mix of clouds and sun and temperatures rising to about 85 degrees for an afternoon high. The area west and northwest of Crowley will have a slight risk of showers as part of their forecast for today. And, the further north and west you go back into Texas, the more likely you'll be to run across a shower or thunderstorm.

By tomorrow, the rain threat will shift to the east covering most of Acadiana with a rain chance of 50% to 60%, again depending on your precise location. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of northwest Acadiana at a marginal risk for thunderstorms to reach severe limits.

Forecasters believe the showers will begin to taper off after sunset on Friday night but there could be a lingering shower or two leftover. By Saturday, the threat of showers will be minimal, so most outdoor activities will be able to proceed without weather concerns, although you might have to step under cover for a passing shower.

Sunday once again will bring a better threat of bigger storms to the area. We should find out in tomorrow's weather model runs whether or not there will be a threat of severe weather in the area to round out the weekend. Just by looking at the long-range models, my supposition is that South Louisiana will at least be under a marginal risk for strong storms as we round out the weekend.

Now, if you don't understand what forecasters mean when say the threat of storms is marginal, slight, or enhanced, this graphic from the Storm Prediction Center should help better your understanding.

It does look as if our two best days to receive significant rainfall between now and Monday will be on Friday and Sunday. Just to clarify, we aren't expecting a total washout nor a threat of flooding rains but some of the showers that do pass over us could bring lightning and thunder, gusty winds, and localized downpours which could cause high water concerns over a very specific area.

Perhaps you'll spend part of tonight and the weekend watching the NFL Draft. You can certainly do that inside and away from the raindrops. As you watch "the draft" you can contemplate this.