Lastest Gulf Depression Could Reach Louisiana Coast By Thursday

LAFAYETTE, La. — A tropical depression has formed in the northeastern Gulf, and while the immediate watch area covers the Florida Panhandle, the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track carries the system westward later this week to a position off the Louisiana coast.

As of the 10 a.m. CDT advisory Sunday, Tropical Depression Two was centered about 155 miles south of Panama City, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 millibars. The system was drifting north-northwest at just 2 mph.

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Current Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida coast from the Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border. That means tropical storm conditions, sustained winds of 39 mph or higher, are possible in that area within the next day or two.

No watches or warnings have been issued for Louisiana at this time. Forecasters say that could change, and additional watches are likely somewhere along the Gulf Coast over the next day or two as the track comes into sharper focus.

What the Forecast Track Shows

Forecasters expect the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm tonight or Monday. Right now, the system is stuck between three competing weather patterns: a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeastern U.S. That’s why it’s barely moving.

As the southern ridge builds eastward over the next couple of days, it should start pushing the system west and west-northwest instead of north.

On that track, the storm would move near or along the northern Gulf coast through the middle and later parts of the week. The Hurricane Center’s forecast has the system off the Mississippi and Alabama coast by Wednesday morning before it tracks farther west to a position off the Louisiana coast by Thursday morning.

The Hurricane Center said confidence in that track is still low. Forecasters don’t yet know how much the system’s circulation will interact with land as it drifts west, and that will help decide both how strong it gets and exactly where it ends up. Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas were all named as areas that should keep watching the system’s progress in case new watches are issued.

Rainfall and Flooding Threat for Acadiana

Even before any turn toward Louisiana, the depression is expected to spread heavy rain along the northern Gulf Coast. The Hurricane Center’s outlook calls for 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 8 inches, stretching from western Florida into southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana through Thursday. That kind of rain can overwhelm drainage quickly in low-lying and urban areas, and forecasters warned the system could produce flash flooding.

What Happens Next

The Hurricane Center’s next complete advisory is scheduled for 4 p.m. CDT Sunday, with an intermediate update at 1 p.m. Additional advisories will refine both the track and intensity forecast as Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigate the system later Sunday.

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