Tropical System Forms in Caribbean – What Can Louisiana Expect?

A tropical system in the Caribbean Sea? In November? Affecting cities in Louisiana such as Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Morgan City? Perposterous. You wouldn't be out of line if you thought that.

You could also be waist-deep in flood water like a large part of South Louisiana was on Wednesday. Those heavy downpours were caused by remnant moisture from another tropical system that formed in the Caribbean and then moved into the Gulf of Mexico and "dissipated".

Yesterday's deluge that put most of Lafayette Parish at risk of flash flooding on Wednesday can be directly attributed to the remnants of Hurricane Rafael. And while Rafael was a bit of an anomaly a new storm forming in the Caribbean Sea could bring a similar fate to portions of the Gulf Coast next week.

The National Hurricane Center has officially designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19. I think by later today we'll be calling it Tropical Storm Sara. The system has formed very close to where Rafael began earlier this month. And the storm's trajectory is not exactly that of Rafael but we'll call it close.

PTC 19 is expected to move further to the west than Rafael did. It is also not expected to become a major hurricane as Rafael did before making landfall on the coast of Cuba. PTC 19's path should carry it over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico over the weekend.

Tropical model guidance does suggest that PTC 19 or Sara as it will soon be called will move into the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models are a bit divided on whether the system will still be a tropical cyclone when it enters the Gulf or if it will just be a large area of showers and thunderstorms with gusty tropical breezes.

As of this morning, the model guidance suggests this abundance of moisture will not drift far enough to the north to inundate South Louisiana with heavy rain such as Lafayette and surrounding communities experienced on Wednesday.  But portions of the Florida Panhandle or the west coast of Florida might be subjected to flash flooding and torrential downpours late next week.

Of course, this is model guidance and subject to change. But it does appear as though Louisiana will be spared any serious impacts from what could become Sara because of a frontal system that is expected to push through Louisiana by midweek next week. That front should bring some of the coldest temperatures of the season to the Gulf South just ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday.