Louisiana Monitoring Tropical Development in Gulf Next Week

From Morgan City to Lake Charles we were warned. We saw the preseason forecasts in Lafourche and in Houma. We prepared for the big storms in Lafayette, New Iberia, and Abbeville. Such is life before and during a typical hurricane season in Louisiana. However, this season has been far from typical. And guess what, according to the National Hurricane Center it's not over yet.

The Official Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. Technically we are still in that window so a potential tropical trouble spot shouldn't be that unexpected. Actually, it is. As you can see from the graphic below, tropical activity drops off immensely after the middle of October.

That's why when we watched, waited, and held our breath for Hurricane Rafael to fall apart a lot of us along Louisiana's coastline thought we were done with tropical weather until next spring. Mother Nature, who doesn't really care about our calendar and seasons, may have decided that we need to meet "Sara". 

Sara would be the next name on the National Hurricane Center's list of named storms for 2024 and although we are technically far away from the current tropical trouble spot earning a name, the model projections look pretty ominous.

That red-shaded area in the graphic above is the area we are interested in watching. The Hurricane Center has given this tropical wave a 70% probability of spinning up into a tropical cyclone. A cyclone could be a depression, a tropical storm, or even a hurricane. And, that storm system could be growing stronger in the Gulf of Mexico by as early as next week.

As you can see the model guidance suggests the tropical wave will move westward toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. From there, assuming it stays together, the system will be thrust into the Gulf of Mexico with the current "best guess" for coastal interaction along the west coast of Florida.

The Global Forecast System or GFS model does show a significant storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico as early as November 20th. The model guidance also suggests a strong cold front will be sweeping across the nation and should "protect" Louisiana's coast from direct impact from this system.

The other prominent tropical forecast model that is widely used is the "European Model" It shows a similar progression for the storm system but this model solution keeps the storm south of Florida.

Please remember this is one model solution. Please do not make storm plans based on this guidance. There will be plenty of time to act and react should that be necessary. Should action be required you will get detailed information from official sources offering you a plan of action. 

This will be a watch-and-wait situation for residents along the Gulf Coast but for the most part, I do believe the greatest threat, if there is any, will be focused on Florida. Meanwhile, Louisiana residents will probably want to think "less tropical" and "more wintery" as that cold front that could keep tropical weather from affecting us is expected to bring much cooler temperatures to the state before Thanksgiving.