NOAA’s Long-Range Winter Forecast Details Odds for Icy Weather in Texas

HOUSTON, Texas (KPEL News) - It's hot in Texas, and after a long and brutal summer, it would be very understandable if Texans were looking forward to a colder - and possibly icier - winter.

The bad news? The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its long-range forecast, and it does not offer much to anyone hoping for a lot of cold and ice.

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NOAA released its forecast last week, and it looks like the warm summer months will lead to warmer-than-usual winter months and fewer chances for frozen weather.

"The September-October-November (SON) 2024 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across a majority of the contiguous U.S. with the largest probabilities (exceeding 60%) forecast for New England and parts of the Southwest," NOAA said in an update issued on August 15. "Increased below-normal temperature probabilities are forecast for southwestern Alaska, while above-normal temperatures are more likely across northern Alaska."

On top of that, NOAA says that "La Niña is favored to develop during September-October-November," with a roughly 70 percent chance of that forecast happening.

How Cold Will It Be?

We don't have exact temperatures, but NOAA is predicting that temperatures will be higher than average this winter across the southwest and along the southern border.

In other words, you might not need the heavy winterwear quite so much this year.

And if you're looking for a snow day, there's a chance you'll be disappointed.

According to the NOAA forecast, the chances of precipitation across the southwest and even across the southern part of the country into southern California will be experiencing less precipitation than normal - likely due to the impacts of the La Niña system expected to develop.

The fall forecast from The Old Farmer's Almanac, which is renowned for its long-range forecasts, cites "near-normal" temperatures for Texas.

This means that temperatures will be in the lower 70s by the time we get to November, which will be a significant cool-off from September (upper 80s) and October (mid-70s).

But after that comes winter, and the first frost of the season is expected to hit Texas between November and December, depending on where in the massive state you are.

While that first frost is comforting, it doesn't mean a very icy winter is in the cards.

READ MORE: Farmer’s Almanac Says These Are First Frost Dates of 2024 for Texas

Here's the list of first frost dates for Texas, so you can see how quickly we'll start getting that cooler weather.

• Austin - November 10

• Dallas - November 20

• El Paso - November 14

• Fort Worth - November 14

• Galveston - December 22

• Houston - December 8

• Killeen - November 8

• Lubbock - November 5

• Nacogdoches - November 10

• San Antonio - November 18

• Waco - November 13

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