While the 2024 hurricane season has been relatively inactive, things could change soon for residents along the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

The National Hurricane Center is watching multiple tropical waves, but one could be a potential heavy rainmaker for the western Gulf Coast.

As of early Sunday morning (Sept. 8), the National Hurricane Center indicated a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. As of now, it is being designated Invest 91L.

But the chance of formation into at least a tropical depression is high. They're giving it a 70% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of formation through the next seven days.

If it does get a name, the new system would be called Francine.

Map of Tropical Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico
NOAA
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Right now, the low is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico while interacting with a frontal boundary. The system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days.

Where is this possible tropical depression going to hit?

That's always the million-dollar question. The track of the system has it moving generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week.

But as you can see in the model below, once it hugs the Texas coast, it will be pushed by the frontal boundary towards Louisiana making things quite soggy for mid-week.

Projected Path of Disturbance in the Gulf
NOAA
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When will this potential tropical system hit?

We can expect dry and fairly sunny conditions on Sunday and Monday and then transition into the impact of this system.

Texas would see rains hitting on Tuesday and Louisiana would get the highest chance of rain on Wednesday.

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Some rainfall total amounts along the coast could be from 5-7 inches.

KATC
KATC
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We will continue to bring you updates on this impending storm so stay connected to our website, app, and social media pages for the latest information.

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Gallery Credit: Rob Kirkpatrick

 

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